By: Marques Eversoll

The University of Wisconsin-Green Bay men’s basktball won’t host the Horizon League tournament — as long as Valparaiso is still alive — but the Phoenix has to be pleased with how things are setting up. With Milwaukee banned from the postseason this season, there are only eight teams in the postseason.

In my opinion, the Horizon League would be wise to give the automatic NCAA Tournament bid to the regular-season champion, rather than the conference tournament champion. I mean, a 16-game sample size gives a better indication of the best team than a, say, 3-game sample size. Green Bay would have advanced last year, but Milwaukee won the tournament and earned a No. 15 seed. Green Bay was the finest team in the conference a year ago. This year, several teams could win conference.

So, why should the Phoenix — the No. 2 seed — feel good about where they are? There are a few reasons:

1. The top two seeds (Valparaiso, GB) have already punched their tickets to the semifinal: Valparaiso will host the tournament, as long as they remain in the tournament. Valparaiso is the biggest team in the conference, which gives them an advantage in the rebounding department (38.0 RPG) over their Horizon League foes. (Green Bay finished second-best, averaging 35.7 rebounds per game.)

Green Bay split with Valparaiso this season, winning 51-50 at the Resch Center on January 23, and most recently, falling 63-59 Feb. 13 at Valparaiso.

This year’s tournament format makes it pretty simple for GB and Valpo: Win one game, you’re in the Championship. And, as is the case every year in the Horizon League, once you’re in the Championship, it’s even simpler: Win one game, you’re in the NCAA Tournament.

2. Cleveland State is the No. 4 seed, which sets up a Valpo-Cleveland St. semifinal: In other words, Green Bay can’t play Valparaiso or Cleveland State until the Championship on Tuesday, March 10. The Phoenix went 1-3 against Valpo and Cleveland State this year — their only win being the one-point nail biter over Valpo Jan. 23 at the Resch.

Green Bay lost both meetings against Cleveland State this season, although the Vikings needed overtime Feb. 20 to hand the Phoenix its first home loss of the year. It’s not as if Oakland couldn’t give the Phoenix some problems if the two teams were to meet in the semifinals — GB split with No. 4 seed Oakland in the regular season — but one would figure Cleveland State (0-2) or Valpo (1-1) gives Green Bay the tougher matchup. To me, the three best teams (Valpo, GB, Clev. St.) have made up the top tier of the conference all season.

Assuming the Phoenix can get past Oakland, whom they beat by 20 in the regular-season finale on Senior Day, the Championship would likely come down to either Cleveland State at Green Bay, or Valparaiso hosting Green Bay.

3. The Phoenix has a full week to rest up before its first tournament game: Last season, nagging injuries kept Keifer Sykes out of Green Bay’s NIT matchup against Belmont. He toughed it out through the conference tournament, but the Phoenix fell just short of the Big Dance, as they were stunned by Milwaukee at the Resch Center.

This year, Sykes has gotten stitches in the middle of a game, and he’s played through a sprained left thumb. There was a six-game stretch where Sykes failed to score more than 13 points. He shot 30 percent during that drought … but that streak has since ended. Sykes is averaging 24.5 points and shooting 53 percent in the four games since. Last week alone, Sykes averaged 28.5 points, 5.5 assists, five rebounds and three steals per game; the Phoenix went 2-0.

Regardless of their seed, the Phoenix was always going to need a healthy Sykes to get to the NCAA Tournament. He may be beaten up, but Keifer has certainly looked like Syked up the past few games. (Couldn’t resist.) A great sign for Phoenix fans.

Bottom line: The path to the Title Game is clear. The path to an NCAA Tournament berth is clear. Beat Oakland – or UIC or Wright State – then either Cleveland State or Valpo is all that stands between you and the Big Dance.

Unlike last year, all eyes aren’t on the Phoenix this time around. Last year, Green Bay hosted the conference tournament. They fell short of their goal at the hands of Jordan Aaron, Matt Tiby and their in-state rival Milwaukee. This year, Valpo is the regular-season outright champion and the odds-on favorite to win the tournament.

Sykes’ final conference tournament will bring attention to the team, but the Phoenix isn’t the clear-cut favorite that it was a year ago. Without any added pressure from the outside, Green Bay recognizes its in a unique place with this senior class. Sykes, Alfonzo McKinnie and Greg Mays won’t be around next year, and coach Brian Wardle & Co. are well aware of this team’s talent.

The Phoenix plays its first tournament game in Valparaiso, Indiana on Saturday, March 7 against either Oakland, UIC or Wright State. And if Cleveland State—or a lower seed—knocks off Valpo in the semifinal, then Green Bay would host the Championship at the Resch Center that following Tuesday, March 10. Valpo swept Cleveland St. this season, but the Crusaders won by a combined five points.