By: Marques Eversoll
To me, the question isn’t if the Packers will re-sign Randall Cobb. It’s how much they’ll pay to keep him around.
Jordy Nelson, on the first day of training camp last summer, signed a four-year deal worth $39 million and $11.5 million guaranteed. A nice reward for a guy coming off a career year in which he caught passes from Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn. But still, Nelson’s new contract looks like a bargain next to, say, Calvin Johnson.
The NFL’s “best of the best” at the position signed an enormous extension with the Lions – seven years, $113 million and a massive $48.75 million guaranteed.
Physically, Nelson isn’t Johnson, but he’s more than 1/3rd the player that Johnson is.
Remember after the 2010 season – when Nelson capped off a breakout postseason with a nine-catch, 140-yard effort in Super Bowl XLV – he signed arguably the most team-friendly deal, like, ever. Three years, $13 million. And the following year, he posted 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns, helping the Packers to a 15-1 record.
The Packers typically “win” these contract battles with wide receivers. When they’ve signed a guy, it’s worked out. When they’ve let a guy walk, it’s worked out.
The Vikings bit on Greg Jennings prior to the 2013 season, signing him for five years, $45 million. Poor quarterback play aside, Jennings hasn’t looked like the same player the past two years with the Vikings. He’s a big step back from the player he was in a four-year stretch with the Packers from 2008-2011. There’s a good chance the Vikings opt to cut ties with Jennings this offseason, if they’re unable to restructure his deal.
But when the Packers signed Jennings to his first post-rookie contract, he—and the Packers—made good on the investment. Coming off his best season as a professional (53-920-12), he cashed in on a four-year deal (three additional years) worth $27 million and $16.25 guaranteed. After signing his extension, Jennings stayed hot, catching 80 balls for 1,292 yards and nine touchdowns.
Of course, the decision on Cobb is a little different than Jennings and Nelson, as the “slot receiver” tag changes the conversation, especially in contract negotiations. Slot receivers are to the wide receiver position what right tackles are to the offensive tackle position.
But one thing is for sure: Packers general manager Ted Thompson won’t be a slave to an awful contract.
Percy Harvin, the “outlier” of slot receivers, signed a six-year deal with the Seahawks in 2013; the contract was worth about $67 million per year. Harvin was a common comparison for Cobb coming out of the 2011 draft, in terms of lining up in the backfield and doing the majority of their damage from the slot. But since Harvin signed that contract, he’s played in 14 of a possible 32 regular-season games in the past two seasons. And he was traded to the New York Jets last October.
Harvin’s contract is the outlier. Any agent that brings the Harvin deal into negotiations should prepare for laughter.
Victor Cruz, on the other hand, may offer a better template for Cobb’s next contract. Also primarily a slot receiver, Cruz signed a long-term extension with the New York Giants a before the 2013 season. Fresh off an 86-1,092-10 campaign, he signed a five-year extension worth $43 million – $15.6 million guaranteed.
At the time of Cruz’s extension, he was coming off back-to-back years with at least 80 catches, 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns.
Cobb, coming into the 2014 season, had every reason to play it out and watch his price tag go up. He had clearly proven to be one of the league’s more explosive players, evidenced by his 80-954-8 line in 2012, but he missed 10 games with a broken leg in 2013 and—although he was only 46 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season—he still, technically, hadn’t had a 1,000-yard season. He was unproven, and it made all the sense in the world for Cobb to play out the 2014 season and watch his price tag skyrocket.
Cha-ching. It didn’t take long for Cobb to cash in.
It took him nine games to catch 10 touchdowns. He set new career highs across the board with 91 catches, 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns.
He will make good money this offseason. But while the Packers tend to “get it right” with their negotiations with wide receivers, letting Cobb walk probably wouldn’t end well for the green and gold. He’s 24 years old and has established himself as an elite playmaker.
Currently, there are only two NFL teams that pay a pair of wide receivers at least $7 million per year: the New York Jets (Harvin, Eric Decker) and Washington Redskins (Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson). While the Jets and Redskins are far from the template the Packers are trying to follow, they’ll likely be joining that crowd if Cobb is to return to Green Bay.
Some raised their eyebrows when the Packers gave Sam Shields a four-year, $39 million deal a year ago, but that’s what it took to lock down an importance piece of their middle-of-the-road defense. This year, Thompson may have to do whatever it takes to lock up a key cog in his high-powered offense.
My best guess? Cobb re-ups with the Packers for three years, $27 million. Yes, he’s a “slot receiver,” but he’s also a play-maker that you can line up, well, literally almost anywhere. Cobb cashes in with the Packers, and still gets another chance at free agency in his prime.
Marques Eversoll is on-air on SportsLine every weekday afternoon from 4:00-6:00 PM on The Fan, and he hosts the Saturday Morning Showcase every weekend 8:00-10:00 AM. Follow him on Twitter @MarquesEversoll.
